No room for improvisation in the face of climate risks

In its report October 3, 2024 Greenpeace harshly criticized the French government’s plans to build two new EPR2 nuclear reactors in northwestern France near Dunkirk due to the risk of flooding. The new units are scheduled to be operational by 2040, but the problem lies in the site chosen for construction. The chosen site is located in a region already at risk of flooding and will become increasingly vulnerable as climate change worsens.

The Gravelines nuclear power plant is currently the most powerful in Western Europe, already consisting of six 900 MW reactors. The French state-owned energy company EDF has promised to build two more reactors at the same plant on an 11-meter-high platform to protect from flooding. According to EDF experts, the NPP project will sufficiently resist climate challenges until 2070. However, this is only the middle of the plant’s lifespan, which is expected to last 60 years until 2100. Its dismantling is scheduled for the middle of the next century, and EDF promises to “adapt” the project to current climate conditions every 10 years after 2070.

It sounds reckless, as the UN Environment Programme warns of a temperature rise of up to  +3.1°C in the coming decades, leading to sea level rise and a dramatic increase in extreme climate events. Have the French authorities already forgotten the devastating North Sea flood of 1953 and the numerous disasters in France in recent years? Even today, most of the area around the nuclear power plant is below sea level during high tides, and only protective structures built nearby, turning the NPP into a kind of “island,” have saved the region from disaster. Since 2022, the Gravelines Nuclear Power Station has been surrounded by a 3-kilometer-long protective wall, which costs EDF 35 million euros. How much more will EDF spend to ensure the nuclear plant’s safety, and what will happen if nature proves more potent than the fortifications built?

The EDF project documentation contains too many unanswered questions, which exist only thanks to Macron’s political patronage. The facts indicate that constructing new reactors poses an extreme danger to the local population and the environment. Nuclear power plants are vulnerable to climate change, and the rampant rush to revive the nuclear power industry should be stopped.

New Challenges for Macron’s Nuclear Renaissance

By announcing the revival of nuclear energy in the country, President Macron has formally taken a step toward reviving France’s economic, industrial and military power. However, the French economy is not yet ready to fully support such ambitious plans.

Macron’s ambitious plans to build 14 new nuclear power units will face a glaring shortage of qualified personnel. The French nuclear industry currently employs about 220 thousand people. To achieve Marcon’s objectives, the industry will need a significant influx of skilled workers, particularly in the workforce. By 2030, according to EDF estimates, their number needs to be at least doubled. The proposed construction timeline is also impressive. The first Gravelines unit with the EPR-2 reactor is expected to take only eight years to complete. It is worth mentioning the notorious Flamanville nuclear reactor in Normandy, which ended up costing 4 times its initial budget, reaching €13.2 billion, and was launched more than a decade behind schedule. 

The Loss of African Uranium Deposits

France is particularly concerned about the exploitation of uranium from Niger and the potential consequences of losing its supply. For more than four decades, the Orano company, owned by the French state by 45%, has been developing uranium in African countries. Niger is one of the three largest suppliers of this valuable natural resource to France. However, the recent revocation of Orano’s uranium mining license in Niger has cast doubt on France’s energy independence. Representatives of the new Nigerien authorities have stated that uranium has been used to supply Europe with electricity for decades. Still, West Africa remains one of the poorest countries in the world and has not benefited much from exports. Additionally, the economic risks for the French nuclear industry include uranium prices that have reached historical highs, primarily due to European countries’ search for new energy suppliers after 2022. 

According to Macron, promoting nuclear technologies in France should lead the country to complete independence from foreign energy supplies and secure France’s status as the flagship nuclear industry in the EU. The problem is that Macron knows it will not be up to him but to future generations of French politicians to address the problems mentioned above regarding his misleading nuclear policy. 

[Tara Yarwais edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

The post France’s New Nuclear Power Plant Is a Ticking Bomb appeared first on Fair Observer.

In June 2023, Canada’s population reached 40 million, significantly increasing from the previous year. The population grew by over 1 million in a year, with 96% of this increase attributable to immigrants. Although 51% of Canadians still reject the proposition that immigration levels are too high, there has been a noticeable shift. The gap between those who oppose and those who agree has narrowed from 42% to 7% over the past year, marking the most significant change since the Environics Institute began its survey in 1977.

International students and temporary workers have played a significant role in Canada’s recent population growth, contributing to nearly 3 million citizens with temporary residence permits. This immigration-driven growth could more than double the country’s population over the next 50 years. Statistics Canada estimates the population will reach 62.8 million by 2074, up from 40.1 million in 2023.

Housing crisis fuels discontent

The growing public discontent toward immigration largely stems from Canada’s housing crisis. The OECD reported in 2022 that Canada had the most expensive housing market among G7 nations. Housing prices soared 90% between 2010 and 2022, making it one of the least affordable markets in the world.

Many Canadians tend to scapegoat immigrants despite the crisis being driven by long-standing government policies. Jack Jedwab, president of the Association for Canadian Studies, emphasized that the housing crisis and economic concerns are fueling a shift in attitudes toward immigration.

Even the Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) acknowledged that public servants warned two years ago that housing construction was not keeping up with population growth. The government knew the increasing number of immigrants would strain the healthcare system and make housing less affordable.

As a result, the rental housing crisis has become a major political issue. Under pressure from opposition parties, the government has taken drastic measures to limit the number of international students and temporary immigrants.

Immigration is no longer seen as the solution to economic growth

Immigration Minister Mark Miller announced that the federal government would reduce the number of temporary residents in Canada. While immigration has boosted population growth in recent years, it has also contributed to housing shortages, rising rents, strain on healthcare and stagnating economy. These issues have forced the Trudeau government to cut the share of temporary residents from 6.2% in 2023 to 5% by 2027, a reduction of nearly 20%. Canada will also reduce the number of student visas by 35% in 2024, disappointing international applicants.

Adjusting immigration levels to suit current economic conditions is a legitimate move for the Trudeau government, given how crucial immigrants are to Canada’s prosperity. However, some politicians and public figures hesitate to discuss immigration restrictions due to concerns about appearing xenophobic.

Canada has a history of controversial immigration policies. In 1885, the government introduced the infamous Chinese Head Tax, which initially charged Chinese immigrants $50 to enter Canada. This fee later increased to $500. The Chinese Immigration Act of 1923, also known as the Chinese Exclusion Act, nearly barred Chinese immigrants from entering Canada until it was repealed in May 1947. This law, the first to exclude people based on ethnicity, remained in place until 1947. The federal government did not officially apologize for the Chinese Exclusion Act until 2006.

Today, many Canadians are concerned about Quebec’s controversial Law 21, passed in 2019. The law forbids public employees in positions of authority from wearing religious symbols. In 2021, an elementary school teacher in Chelsea, Quebec, was fired for refusing to remove her traditional Muslim headscarf. The case sparked public outrage, but the Superior Court of Quebec upheld the law despite acknowledging that it violates religious minorities’ freedom of expression and religion.

Potential impact of a second Trump Presidency on Canada’s immigration system

If former US President Donald Trump wins a second term, Canada may face an immigration surge. During his 2016 campaign, Trump promised to deport illegal immigrants from the US. Although legal and bureaucratic obstacles prevented him from fulfilling this plan, many believe he would pursue it more aggressively in a second term, potentially deporting up to 11 million people. Former US Ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman said these individuals would likely flee north to Canada.

Trump’s immigration plans remain popular among Americans. A recent CBS poll showed that 62% of voters support a national program to deport all illegal immigrants. Even if legal hurdles prevent mass deportations, fear and uncertainty among immigrants could drive many to seek refuge in Canada.

In 2022 alone, more than 39,000 illegal migrants entered Canada from the US via Roxham Road, the longest undefended land border in the world. In 2023, Canada reached a long-discussed agreement with the US to regulate this influx by applying changes to the Safe Third Country Agreement across the entire Canada–US border. These changes allow both countries to turn away asylum seekers at unofficial border crossings.

The number of asylum seekers has continued to rise. If Trump is re-elected, Roxham Road could become a political flashpoint for Canada. However, considering it took 20 years to amend the Safe Third Country Agreement, a solution may be far off.

[Liam Roman edited this piece]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

The post Canada’s Immigration Policy in a Scarce Housing Market appeared first on Fair Observer.

This is fully applicable to Thailand. The long reign of King Bhumibol Adulyadej (1946–2016), known as Rama IX, strengthened the Thai state and helped the country withstand periods of internal and regional political turbulence. Despite wars and insurgencies in the region, the kingdom maintained its internal cohesion. Rama IX’s reign undoubtedly increased public respect for the monarchy. Thailand quickly transformed from a poor agricultural country into a prosperous state.

Rama IX’s son, Maha Vajiralongkorn, whom we call Rama X, fully carries on his father’s legacy. In 2020, during the massive student protests in Bangkok, Thailand saw an unprecedented event for the monarchy. Amidst political divisions and students’ tensions with the authorities, the king gave a brief interview to the British Channel 4 News. When asked about the fate of the anti-government protesters, he replied, “Thailand is the land of compromise. I have no comments. We love them all the same.”

The Cambridge Dictionary defines “compromise” as ” a solution to a problem that makes it possible for two or more opposite or different things to exist together.” This approach underpins Thailand’s success story.

Under the current king, Thailand continues to strengthen its position in the region and takes advantage of all the opportunities of a multipolar world. The country has traditionally relied on a “policy of compromise” to promote pragmatic multilateral cooperation while focusing on its path, destiny, and well-being.

Balancing between the US and China

Thailand’s successful maneuvering between the most prominent global and regional players — the USA and China  — is a vivid example of such a “policy of compromise.”

Despite their increasing global geopolitical rivalry, Thailand maintains a delicate balance in relations with Washington and Beijing amid their increasing global geopolitical rivalry. This is a challenging task, but it has a Thai solution.

Economic considerations primarily drive Bangkok’s close ties with Beijing. China has long been Thailand’s most significant trading partner. The two countries resolved most of their differences at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in 2022. During this event in 2022, the attendees signed several agreements, including a Joint Strategic Cooperation Plan for 2022–2026, and they worked out a framework for cooperation within the “One Belt, One Road” initiative. These constitute the “road map” for the economic interaction of the two countries in the future. Planners aim to complete the Thailand–Laos–China high-speed railway link by 2027–2028. With it, Thailand is expected to increase its logistics and investment attractiveness.

Thailand primarily focuses its cooperation with the USA in the defense sphere. Since Washington named Thailand a “major non-NATO ally” in 2003, Bangkok has remained the only strategic partner of the USA in mainland Southeast Asia in the security field. In particular, during the COVID-19 crisis, the two nations were able to ensure the sustainability of global logistics routes and supply chains in the region. Sustained cooperation with the USA in the defense has given Thailand a key role in ensuring regional stability.

New economic partners

Although Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, Thailand has lagged in certain macroeconomic indicators compared to its neighbors in recent years. A balanced and multilateral approach should also help to address this issue. The new government under Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin sees the solution to current difficulties on the “path of compromise” as well.

In addition to strengthening cooperation with the United States and China, Thailand is actively seeking opportunities to broaden its range of economic partners, especially Japan, India and Russia. Cooperation with these countries could help ensure alternative pathways for economic growth and investment.

The current government asserts that the economic recovery project will create 280,000 new jobs and help accelerate Thailand’s economic growth by 5.5%. “Our goal remains clear: Thailand’s economy must grow by an average of 5% over four years,” stated Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin. 

Thailand sees joining organizations and platforms such as OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) as one way to stimulate the country’s economic growth and enhance its international credibility. By developing parallel cooperation with such diverse associations, Thailand once again demonstrates its ability to find common ground and build relationships with both Western and Eastern countries while maintaining a balance between the great powers. At the same time, promoting the country’s economic interests and strengthening ties with an ever-widening circle of developed and developing countries remains a top priority.

In the words of Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa, “Thailand is unique in that we are friends with all countries and are not enemies with any country. We can serve as a bridge between developing countries and BRICS members and connect BRICS with other groups. This will strengthen BRICS’s negotiating power and help the international community recognize the importance of developing and emerging countries.”

[Liam Roman edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

The post Thailand Is a Country of Compromise, and This Is Its Main Secret appeared first on Fair Observer.

Everything may seem unchanged–Josep Borrell Fontenes, The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, continues to focus on his prominent political issues. The leaders of France, Germany, and the UK remain in the primetime news spotlight. European media produce a considerable amount of content featuring prominent European leaders. Sadly, all of this is just a beautiful facade.

In reality, things are quite bleak for Europeans. Borrell seems unable to become the voice of a unified Europe on the international stage, although he still desires it greatly. It was well-highlighted by POLITICO-Europe, “Borrell has always condemned the Hamas attacks, called for the unconditional liberation of all hostages, for a humanitarian pause leading to a sustainable cease-fire, for the humanitarian provision and a two-state solution, along the same line of the European Council conclusions that leaders unanimously agreed in March.” Nevertheless “during a meeting of EU leaders, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Austrian counterpart Karl Nehammer confronted Josep Borrell on his months-long outspoken critique of Israel as the death toll in Gaza mounted, according to two officials briefed on the exchange.”

It looks like the euro bureaucracy restricts Borrell’s freedom. He always feels free to give careless comments. E.g. he is notorious for his “garden vs. jungle” metaphor that made him the EU’s undiplomatic top diplomat.  Many times, he ends up in awkward situations. Now, hardly anyone can take him seriously and perceive him as an influential politician following his own policy. On the contrary, his behavior represents what the global West will become – noisy but increasingly irrelevant.

One after another, new nationally oriented African leaders asked France to leave the region. Following coups in those countries, neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have already kicked out France’s forces. This has weakened its influence in its former colonies amid a wave of anti-French sentiment.

Paris does it without resistance, not even formally attempting to negotiate its interests. For more than two months, French President Emmanuel Macron took a defiant stance, ignoring the ultimatum set by the junta in Niger, who came to power in July after a military coup. France refused to engage with the junta leaders or move on their demands to remove French troops stationed in the country to fight terrorism.   

It withdrew its military contingents. Meanwhile, President Macron is trying to make history calling for an “Olympic truce” during the Olympics scheduled to take place from July 26 to August 11, 2024, in Paris.“We will do everything to have an Olympic truce, we will work on it,” Macron said in an interview with BFM television. But his voice is still weak and Europe is reluctant to listen to him, let alone Moscow. Macron pleads for an Olympic truce but suffers double rejection. What happens now does not align well with France’s international reputation and Macron’s ego.

Half of the German population opposes China’s influence. At the dawn of a new political era, the German population’s growing mistrust of China has significant implications for the country’s foreign policy. The other half “dreams” of Beijing coming to their country and “taking it over as an investor.”German business associations widely welcome China’s economic strategy.  

However, when Scholz arrived in China on an official visit this April, he faced a change in attitude toward him by the Chinese officials. Scholz was forced to deal with the low-level diplomatic reception. The Chongqing Vice Mayor Zhang Guozhi was the only official who met him upon arriving at the airport. It was a flagrant breach of protocol to receive foreign leaders or diplomats at the wrong level. It sends a negative message when you receive or offer to receive another country leader at a lower level. The MFAs of any country know that, but Scholz had no choice but to accept this reality. 

At Tel Aviv airport, air sirens forced Chancellor Scholz to lie on the ground due to a missile attack threat from Hezbollah. That was a severe blow to the image of the head of one of Europe’s leading countries. People in the Middle East will remember this episode for a long time. Video showed panicked German officials fleeing a plane amid a missile threat in Israel became top news. It is challenging to follow up the tough guy position during future contacts after such public experience, especially in the Middle East, where value leaders and individuals who uphold personal strength are challenging.

Despite Britain not being a part of the EU anymore, it maintains the first-line position among the leaders of Europe. London nowadays took a wait-and-see approach and preferred not to stick its neck out unnecessarily. The English have always been characterized by a healthy sense of caution. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is formally active and visible, traveling the world and talking even more. He says the right things, but they are not his thoughts and ideas. He repeats everything already said at various levels in Washington, not adding personal insight into the situation. This wise behavior allows him to avoid taking responsibility and escape unnecessary scrutiny of his personality.

The above is just a small part of what people in Asia and the Global South observe. And they are not at all happy about it. What these countries need is sustainable growth and development. Alongside North America, Asia is where the European Union and its member states are most deeply economically intertwined – through trade, supply chains, investment, financial flows, and mutual reliance on market demand.  

But it is only possible when a partner, even a stronger one, behaves consistently and predictably. As even Prince Michael of Liechtenstein admits, European countries say they base their foreign policies on values – but doing so has led to inconsistency in how they treat international partners.  Europe is gradually losing these qualities in the eyes of people living on other continents.

Many people in Asia have come to perceive Europe as a political open space leaning towards its decline. They still have money and technology, but long-term investors and manufacturing capacity are steadily moving to other world regions. The stability of the European economy depends more and more on China and Asia. The leaders of Europe are already rushing to the region and are looking back and forth at each other.

Europeans still influence global politics, e.g. as a global actor, the EU and the UK inspire countries worldwide and strengthen international development in many ways. At the same time, they have continued to fail to influence the end of the war in Ukraine. The conflict has been going on for three years, and European approaches still oscillate from bravado to panic. It is unlikely that Moscow or Kyiv will take such a political approach seriously. Europe should be more persistent and figure out its goals, ways and means more unambiguously, speaking with one voice to clarify its position for everybody.

Human rights continue to represent one of the core values of Europe. But in the face of the conflict in Gaza, many European countries are losing the moral right to lecture others on the issue. Although this is not just a European problem, the Europeans are not able to come up with an effective formula to stop the endless and merciless bloodshed on both sides.

The results of the European elections held over the past month — notably, the significant rise of right-wing parties — have sent another clear message. Europeans are tired of dealing with the consequences of current social and economic policies and want change. 

Calling snap elections in France for June 9, Macron described his decision as an “act of confidence.” However, his centrist Renaissance party showed a significant lag (21.27%) behind the far-right Rassemblement National (31.4%) in the first round. While he managed to squeak out of total defeat by working with the Left to exclude Rassemblement National, his position is seriously compromised. This suggests that Macron’s “confidence” stemmed from his erratic policies, which lost touch with the real issues faced by the French people. 

On July 4, Britain’s ruling Conservative Party was thrown out of government after 14 years of rule. Here, unlike on the continent, the establishment belongs to the Right, and it was to the Left that the people turned to express their discontent. The Labour Party won a landslide victory with 411 out of the House of Commons’ 650 seats. Voters deserted the Sunak-led ruling Conservative Party due to his numerous mistakes, which have led the country to its current state.  

Considering what is happening now, it would be understandable for Asian countries to seek more stable and predictable relations. That’s why so many governments are willing to join BRICS. Countries from Iran to Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Algeria, Indonesia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Cuba and Kazakhstan have considered joining.

China’s One Belt, One Road initiative also attracts an increasing number of supporters. There are 150 countries formally affiliated with the Belt and Road Initiative, and six more are considering joining it shortly. Cooperation within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership is gaining momentum. Europe and Western countries participated insignificantly in all of this. Once again, in its history, Europe has faced the need to clearly understand itself and its role in the rapidly changing modern world. The emerging confrontation between the West and the East requires an adequate and balanced response.

Europe has to stop reflecting on the past. The old international world order is already fading into the past. The Global South is developing rapidly and demands fair consideration of its interests. Asia is closely watching Europe lose its power but dreams of its colonialism-based part of the US-led rule-based order. Europeans need to accept the new reality as quickly as possible and keep up with the times.

[Liam Roman edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

The post Europe Needs to Find a New Path appeared first on Fair Observer.